Daily analysis | How would a U.S. war against Iran affect the congressional midterm elections?

ParsToday — A Reuters poll shows that America's war with Iran has already begun to impact the November 2026 midterm election ballots, with Democrats holding a relatively significant lead over Republicans.

According to ParsToday, for the first time in nearly a decade, Americans in a Reuters-Ipsos poll preferred Democrats over Republicans for managing the economy. The poll also indicates that their satisfaction with Donald Trump's performance as US President has dropped to 35%, down from 37% last month. This poll shows how Trump's handling of the economy—including rising energy prices resulting from the attack on Iran—could negatively affect his party's chances in the November 2026 midterm elections.

According to the poll, 42% of registered voters in the congressional elections would vote for a Democrat, while 37% would vote for a Republican if the election were held now. Independents in this poll favored Democrats over Republicans by a 12-point margin. Thus, Trump's unlawful aggression against Iran has significantly reduced the Republicans' chances of victory in the November 2026 elections.

The key question is: why has the war with Iran benefited the Democrats? Several factors can be noted in this regard:

1. The staggering rise in energy prices has collapsed the Republicans' traditional advantage.

Republicans had an edge over Democrats on economic issues for years, but with the start of large-scale US and Israeli military strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, that advantage quickly evaporated. The war has directly impacted the daily expenses of American households. Gasoline prices have risen by more than 25% since the start of the conflict with Iran, with each gallon averaging over one dollar more expensive. According to Bloomberg, Iranian retaliatory strikes have disrupted approximately one-fifth of global oil trade.

When the pressure of daily costs moves from news headlines to the gas pump bills of every family, voter dissatisfaction with the ruling party transforms from an abstract notion into a decisive motivation for voting. As Reuters has analyzed, the Republican advantage on economic issues "has been gradually declining during the current Trump presidency and has reached zero in recent months."

2. America's war on Iran is unpopular with the US public.

Trump initially framed the attack as "an act of power projection," but public opinion data shows a completely different reality:

In the early days of the conflict, only 27% of Americans supported military action against Iran, while 43% were explicitly opposed. By the end of July, support for the war consistently remained below 40%. Meanwhile, a Quinnipiac University poll found that 60% of voters opposed US military actions in Iran. According to an Associated Press-NORC poll, even among Republican supporters, only 20% supported deploying ground troops to Iran.

Even more noteworthy, among Trump's loyal supporters (the MAGA movement), support for the war dropped by 13%. When a war can neither earn the enemy's respect nor win the approval of its own citizens, its political cost inevitably weighs heavily on the ruling party.

3. Trump's crisis management performance has exacerbated distrust.

The war against Iran not only exposed the shortcomings of White House policymaking but also laid bare Trump's leadership deficiencies. In this regard, it should be noted that the Pentagon has announced that the cost of this war has so far reached $37.5 billion. Lawmakers from both parties have complained about Trump and his team's failure to provide timely updates to Congress regarding the war's progress and future plans.

Trump repeatedly tried to declare the war "over," but US strikes against Iran continued. When the US President can neither contain the conflict nor present a clear vision to the American people, voter trust is irreversibly lost.

The combination of these conditions carries undeniable political consequences, especially with the November 2026 midterm congressional elections approaching. In this context, the following points can be noted:

1. A shift in the balance of congressional control: Republicans hold only a slim majority in both chambers of Congress. A 5-point gap in the polls, given the number of competitive seats, alone could alter control of Congress. As Time magazine has noted, several reputable polling institutes have all confirmed a rising trend in Democratic advantage across various indicators.

2. The transfer of the "economic card" to Democrats represents a historic shift: Since 2017, Republicans have consistently presented "ability to manage the economy" as their most important electoral trump card. Losing this advantage, especially in a year when the economy matters most to voters, means Republicans have lost their strongest campaign weapon and must now compete on other issues.

3. Foreign policy becoming a primary variable in US domestic elections: The war against Iran has demonstrated that in today's interconnected world, the economic ripple effects of a military action beyond borders can upend domestic political equations within months.

Rising energy prices have linked the distant Iranian battlefield through fuel bills to the dinner tables of every American family, transforming foreign policy from an "elite issue" into a factor influencing the voting behavior of individual citizens.

It appears that the Democratic lead in the Reuters poll is not the result of a sudden appeal of the party's policies, but rather the product of the tangible impacts that an unpopular war has imposed on the economic lives of American households. When gasoline prices become the primary yardstick for measuring the ruling party's performance, the Iran war is no longer just a conflict on the shores of the Persian Gulf—it will be the heaviest political weight at the November 2026 ballot boxes.