Iran’s mediation for settlement of Qarabagh dispute
Apr 11, 2016 08:09 UTC
Qarabagh, a Turkish-Persian compound term meaning “Black Garden”, is a large lush green region in the lower Caucasus Mountains, which since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, has been a bone of contention between the republics of Azerbaijan and Armenia.
The two countries, which for long centuries were an integral part of Iran, before infiltration in the 19th century by Czarist Russia, have again resorted to armed confrontation – with loss of innocent life – when it is clear there is no military solution to territorial disputes that only diplomacy can resolve. Tehran, aware that tension would involve mischief-mongers, such as NATO and the US, which only look for opportunities to destabilize other lands, has launched mediation efforts with the two belligerents, to defuse the crisis in Qarabagh that was detached from Iran, along with the entire southern Caucasus region, including Daghestan, by the dubious Treaty of Gulistan in 1813. The Islamic Republic of Iran seeks peaceful resolution of the dispute, in view of the fact that Tehran shares historical and cultural bonds with both Yerevan and Baku, and believes in collective security for the whole region. Stay with us for an interesting analysis in this regard.
In recent years, the Caucasus region, due to its geopolitical and geo-economic nature, has grown highly significant for both the regional and trans-regional powers. The Caucasus region is an intersection of strategic cooperation, however, eruption of war there and then entering in a no-war-no-peace status have added to the complexity of the security equations of this region. Some regional players like the Islamic Republic of Iran and Russia, are trying to make grounds for peace because of heavy security costs of conflict conditions, fully aware that outside powers, such superpowers as the US, are trying to protract the complexity of security conditions in a bid to maximize their interests in Caucasus’ countries. In other words, while the regional players are moving to stabilize the security in the region, the trans-regional powers are seeking to complicate the conditions, in pursuit of their vested interests. Accordingly, because of complex historical hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, beside multiplicity of the powers engaged in Qarabagh, it seems that no regional power or even outside powers are able to mediate between Baku and Yerevan in their recent conflict. It looks that even the activities of bodies like the Minsk Group – that is the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE) – are not going to yield results. The only practical outcome of the Minsk Group so far has been implementing the first article of the peace deal for reaching a truce. The cessation of hostilities has so far seen many violations by the two sides, or they have threatened to revoke it and start a new war.
Meanwhile, as an influential and strong country regionally and internationally and because of its friendly ties with the opposing sides in the Qarabagh dispute, the Islamic Republic of Iran is capable mediator which can convince both the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia to work for settlement of the crisis, since protraction of tensions, is not in the favour of Yerevan, neither of Baku, nor of Tehran. In view of its great capacities and capabilities, Iran is able to contribute very importantly to resolution of the conflict. Nevertheless, it seems that so far a Tehran’s mediation offer in the Qarabagh situation has not received a warm welcome by Azerbaijan. The Russians also think that an Iranian mediation in Qarabagh crisis could undermine Moscow’s role in settlement of regional conflicts.
Generally, the Islamic Republic of Iran has persistently followed a policy of reconciliation, balance-making and compromise concerning the Qarabagh issue. In fact, Tehran in its policy-making has tried to maintain a balance between the Caucasus countries and move towards defusing tensions between them. In Iran’s viewpoint, regional stability is feasible only through coordination among regional countries in order to settle conflicts and prevent grounds of fresh escalation of tensions. Also, Iran thinks that the trans-regional powers have not done, or have been unable to do, any effective and positive work for harmony in the region. For instance the OSCE Minsk Group for several years has tried to settle the Qarabagh dispute but it has failed to come up with an outcome in practice. The only job of the European organization has been “negotiation for negotiation.”
Over the years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has shown a good will and spared no efforts for settlement of the Qarabagh dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In addition to presenting models of peace, Tehran has shouldered the responsibility of the post-ceasefire processes. By providing humanitarian aid to the people of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Islamic Republic of Iran has tried to reduce the damages of the Armenian-Azeri conflict. Thereby, Iran’s presence as a mediator in the warring side’s dialogue could result in final resolution of the Qarabagh conflict. It should not be ignored that geographically Iran is one of the most vulnerable countries once war erupts in the Caucasus region. Actually, due to proximity to the conflict areas, the clashes could inadvertently spill over to Iran’s territory, as in past few days in the Azeri-Armenian clashes three mortar shells landed in a village in Iran’s Khudaferin border town, northwest of the country. The interesting point is that it is not clear if the Armenian or Azeri forces in Qarabagh have fired the shells into the Iranian territory.
Despite the fact that the Iranian armed forces have announced readiness to respond to such incidents, it must be put into consideration that possible clashes could bring forth many damages. Additionally, any spark of war in the region could lead to the refugees flowing to the Iranian soil, which could impose many social, economic and political pressures on the Islamic Republic. It is for this reason that Tehran sees intensified clashes in Qarabagh as causing insecurity and asked for immediate ceasefire.
Iran seeks settling the Qarabagh dispute for a couple of reasons:
1. Military operations next to the Iranian borders pose serious risks to the Islamic Republic’s security, especially since protraction of the dispute or renewed fighting between Baku and Yerevan would pave the way for deployment of Russian or Western military forces, which is certainly against Iran’s security interests in the region.
2. A protracted conflict could lead to a variety of economic and social challenges including immigration and influx of war refugees. Iran hosted nearly four million Afghan and Iraqi refugees following the turmoil in their countries during the 1980s and 1990s. So, a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan could result in a huge number of refugees flowing into Iran’s northern borders. Certainly, this is not a favourable issue for Tehran and it could impose heavy burdens on Iran.
3. The war between Armenia could end in one of them winning it. This would mean that the region would lose its balance of power. This situation, too, is not in favour of the Islamic Republic. Tehran seeks a state of balance of power between Baku and Yerevan. Iran has always welcomed initiatives which aim at settling the Armenian-Azeri conflicts without any changes in the internationally recognized border drawings.
4. Azeri-Armenian clashes could disrupt Iran’s full access to Europe. Of course such an issue is not in line with Iran’s national interests.
5. Eruption of a military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan could bring foreign forces into the Caucasus region. This again runs against Iran’s security interests. Due to links of Armenia and Azerbaijan to Russia and the US respectively, any renewed clashes could lead to collision of Russia with the US and possible deployment of forces to the region. Surely, Iran, which wants a solution of dispute without superpowers’ presence in Caucasus, sees foreign forces deployment a direct threat to its stability.
6. Regionally, Iran and Turkey are in a race to play a role and hold sway in the Caucasus republics following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Specifically in post-Soviet years, the West and the US have made efforts to present Turkey as a model for the Caucasus’ states. However, it seems that Tehran enjoys a bigger chance than Ankara to play a regional role, at least in pushing for a settlement of Qarabagh conflict between Baku and Yerevan. Actually, an enmity between the Turks and the Armenians has provide Iran with an opportunity to resist against the US policies in the region, especially that the Islamic Republic is the only regional power that has the chance to play the role of an unbiased mediator between the opposing sides.
AS/SS