Analysis – What are the reasons behind UAE’s belligerence?

Pars Today – The United Arab Emirates has openly adopted a belligerent approach, especially toward the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The UAE is a small country with an area of less than 84,000 square kilometers and a population of around 11 million, the majority of whom are foreign nationals. The UAE has a strong economy, but in military and security terms, it remains dependent on external powers, particularly the United States. Nevertheless, in addition to the challenges it has faced in recent years with Saudi Arabia over influence in the Arab world and Africa, and with Iran over geographical issues, the UAE also cooperated with Washington and Tel Aviv during the 40-day war waged by the United States and the Zionist regime against Iran. More recently, reports have emerged showing that the UAE asked the United States to launch a war against Iran and offered to finance it. Therefore, the question is: what are the reasons behind the UAE’s belligerence toward the Islamic Republic of Iran?

It seems there are two possible answers to this question. The first answer is that the UAE is playing on Israel's field; meaning, the UAE's importance to the Zionist regime is greater than its importance to the United States. The UAE's perception is that by playing on Israel's field, it will receive support from this regime, and while benefiting from Israel's capabilities, particularly in technology, it will gain Tel Aviv's support for expanding its regional and extra-regional influence, as well as against external threats. Therefore, the current belligerence might be at the request of the Israeli regime or stem from the UAE's view towards this regime.

The second answer relates to the UAE’s perception of its own interests and position. Over the past two decades, due to its considerable economic growth, the UAE has expanded its foreign policy ambitions. Accordingly, it has entered into various disputes with Saudi Arabia, acted against Qatar in 2017, faced challenges with Turkey, and repeatedly reiterated territorial claims over Iranian islands. The UAE now perceives that by participating in a war against Iran, it can gain American and Israeli support and find an opportunity to pursue its territorial claims.

The crucial point here is the miscalculation and misunderstanding on the part of the UAE. Firstly, it is pursuing its interests by playing the “Israeli card,” even though Israel itself is unable to secure its own interests without U.S. support. Secondly, Israel is a widely despised regime, both in the West Asian region and globally, and increasing cooperation with Israel will inevitably bring regional hostility towards Abu Dhabi as well.

It is also worth noting that if the Islamic Republic of Iran decides to deliver a decisive response to the UAE, the country's security is so fragile that it would suffer severe and heavy losses.