Somaliland in geopolitical spotlight: Israel seeking foothold in Bab el-Mandeb?

Pars Today — African, Arab, and Islamic countries and organizations have opposed Israel’s recognition of Somaliland.

According to Pars Today, Israel’s move to formally recognize Somaliland as an independent country has sparked strong reactions from Islamic, African, and Arab nations and organizations, which have described the action as a clear violation of international law and a serious threat to the security and stability of the Horn of Africa.

The Somaliland region is located in the northern part of Somalia in East Africa, along the southern coast of the Gulf of Aden. It borders Djibouti to the northwest, Ethiopia to the south and west, and Somalia to the east. Somaliland unilaterally declared its independence in 1991, but no country other than Israel has recognized it to date, and Somalia’s central government considers it an inseparable part of its territory.

At the end of 2024, Al Jazeera reported that Somaliland was ready to discuss accepting Gaza residents if Israel formally recognized its independence. In November 2024, a presidential election was held in Somaliland, where Abdulrahman Mohamed Abdullahi, the leader of the opposition party, won. Both candidates in the election had promised to improve the economic situation and work toward international recognition of Somaliland’s independence.

The widespread opposition of Arab and Islamic countries to Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is based on legal, political, and security grounds. The primary and most fundamental reason is that this move contradicts established principles of international law, including the sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity of states.

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the Arab League, and a range of regional governments have emphasized in joint statements that Somaliland is an inseparable part of the Federal Republic of Somalia. They have stated that recognizing it constitutes a clear violation of the United Nations Charter and poses a threat to regional and international peace and security.

The Federal Government of Somalia has described Israel’s move as a “deliberate attack on its sovereignty and territorial integrity” and warned that such actions could undermine internal stability and counterterrorism efforts in Somalia. Following this development, Mogadishu launched a wave of diplomatic activity, supported by members of the Arab League and East African countries, to strengthen organized opposition to any form of separatism. The African Union has also reaffirmed its commitment to Somalia’s unity and rejected any recognition of secessionist entities.

The second reason for opposition is geopolitical concern over the potential consequences of this move in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. Somaliland lies along the southern coast of the Gulf of Aden, near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a crucial route for global trade and the transport of vital energy supplies. Arab and Islamic countries have warned that opening the door to the recognition of self-declared entities in this chokepoint could lead to instability, heightened military-security competition, and increased maritime risks.

The third point of concern is the fear of setting a “dangerous precedent” for separatism in other parts of the world. Joint statements from Islamic countries emphasize that recognizing the independence of parts of sovereign states creates destructive and divergent patterns, undermining the international legal order—a system based on respect for international borders and the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of states.

Alongside these reasons, there is also a humanitarian-political concern: some countries have firmly rejected linking this move to potential plans to forcibly relocate Palestinians from Gaza to foreign destinations. They have deemed such a scenario unacceptable both in form and substance, considering any attempt to impose forced migration a violation of international law and a threat to regional stability.

However, an important question arises regarding Israel’s objectives behind this unprecedented move on the international stage. One key goal appears to be gaining a geopolitical foothold in the Horn of Africa and enhancing intelligence and operational oversight over the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Somaliland’s location allows for strengthened monitoring of energy trade routes, Yemen’s maritime communications, and shipping lanes.

In fact, this decision by Tel Aviv aligns with broader projects aimed at increasing influence over vital ports, reinforcing surveillance and communication systems, and establishing security cooperation with certain regional actors. The Israeli regime seems to operate under the mistaken belief that by deploying its forces and military equipment in Somaliland, it could easily monitor Yemen and target the Yemeni resistance—even from across the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Another objective is Israel’s attempt to deepen and extend “normalization” in the style of the Abraham Accords, even through an entity that is not yet recognized in the international system. Such a move could provide Tel Aviv with symbolic advantages and opportunities for bilateral cooperation in areas like agriculture, healthcare, and technology, albeit accompanied by significant legal and security costs.

The third objective is to influence regional balances and limit the influence of competitors. Some reports describe this move as part of a broader campaign to manage rivalries in and around the Red Sea, including containing or curbing the operational capacities of parties opposed to Israel and its allies.

However, the unified opposition of African, Arab, and Islamic institutions and countries shows that not only Somalia but a range of regional organizations and states view this action as interventionist and tension-inducing. It can be said that the coordinated responses of African, Arab, and Islamic countries and organizations reflect that Israel’s decision is not only illegitimate but also carries significant security and legal costs for the region and beyond.